Trump Returns to Crypto: Should You Buy Coinbase Now?

The last time Washington got this friendly with crypto, Bitcoin went vertical and exchange stocks followed. Now, with the Trump administration actively dismantling the regulatory siege that strangled the sector under the Biden-era SEC, Coinbase finds itself in an unusually powerful position — a licensed, publicly traded exchange in a market suddenly being invited inside.

COIN stock has already repriced. The question isn't whether the opportunity is real. It is whether that repricing reflects the opportunity ahead, or whether it's already priced in everything good that could possibly happen.

Coinbase at a Glance

• SEC lawsuit dropped: February 2025 — landmark reversal after June 2023 filing
• Q3 2025 net revenue: $1.21B — up 79% year-over-year
• Transaction revenue (Q3 2025): $573M — up 133% YoY
• Subscription & services revenue (Q3 2025): $556M — nearly matching transaction revenue for first time
• FY2024 GAAP net income: ~$1.3B — swing of nearly $3.9B from 2022's loss
• Adjusted EBITDA margin (2025): ~46% — comparable to Nasdaq (~52%) and ICE (~55%)
• Cash and equivalents (Q3 2025): $7.4B
• Long-term debt: ~$3.4B in notes
• Bitcoin spot ETF custodian: For 8 of 11 approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs
• BlackRock IBIT total net inflows since launch: $62B+ — Coinbase is the custodian
• COIN price-to-sales ratio: ~8x vs. traditional exchanges at 4–6x revenue
• COIN stock near early March 2026: ~$285

What Drove the Regulatory Shift

Two events changed Coinbase's business trajectory permanently — not cyclically.

Event 1: The SEC dropped its Coinbase lawsuit in February 2025, signalling a fundamental shift in Washington's posture toward crypto. The Trump administration followed with executive orders directing federal agencies to treat digital assets as a legitimate asset class.

Event 2: Bitcoin spot ETFs, approved by the SEC in January 2024, attracted over $40 billion in net inflows by late 2024 — the fastest ETF launch in history by that measure. Coinbase is the custodian for 8 of 11 approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs. That structural role — quiet, fee-generating, largely invisible to retail investors — is now one of its most valuable revenue streams.

These aren't cyclical improvements. Regulatory clarity and the ETF custodian position don't disappear if Bitcoin drops 30%. That's the core of the bull case.

The financial diversification story:

Subscription and services revenue reaching $556M in Q3 — nearly matching volatile transaction revenue — means Coinbase's revenue base is structurally less dependent on pure price speculation than it was in 2021. Base, its Layer 2 blockchain built on Ethereum, processed over $10 billion in transaction volume in Q3 2025, generating fee revenue that has nothing to do with Bitcoin's price on a given day.

Why the Valuation Is the Honest Concern

The improvements are real. The question is whether they're already in the price.

COIN at ~$285 implies sustained high growth that leaves little room for disappointment. CoinMetrics data shows Bitcoin's transaction revenue has historically moved in near-lockstep with Bitcoin's 90-day average price — a 10% move in Bitcoin's quarterly average corresponds to roughly a 12–14% move in Coinbase's transaction revenue. That beta amplifies both gains and losses.

A 30% pullback in Bitcoin's price would likely compress transaction revenue by 35–40%, pressure the stock significantly, and potentially trigger a valuation re-rating from 8x sales toward 5–6x. That wouldn't be a catastrophe for the business — the $7.4B cash position provides substantial runway — but it would be real pain for shareholders who bought at current levels.

Worth It at $285? — The Numbers

At current pricing, you're paying an ~8x sales multiple for a company that:

• Has genuine structural advantages (ETF custodian, regulatory clarity, $7.4B cash)
• Still generates the majority of revenue from one highly cyclical source (crypto trading volumes)
• Trades at a 33–100% premium to traditional financial exchanges with steadier revenue profiles

That premium is the market pricing in crypto's next leg up. Whether that leg materialises — and how fast — is entirely the investment question. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both expanded their crypto custody and trading desks in 2025, suggesting institutional flows could sustain Coinbase's revenue base even in a moderate crypto pullback.

The Policy Reversal Risk Nobody's Pricing

Here's the specific risk that isn't reflected in the current $285 price: political regime change speed. The current regulatory environment — SEC lawsuit dropped, executive orders supporting digital assets, congressional crypto bills in committee — is built entirely on a single administration's posture. Trump's pro-crypto position created the tailwind; a change in that position, or a successor administration with different instincts, could reverse it faster than markets expect.

The FTX collapse in 2022 cost the sector $200 billion in market cap in one week and catalysed the very SEC enforcement campaign that was just reversed. A single high-profile institutional crypto failure — an exchange hack at a systemically important custodian, a stablecoin de-pegging event at scale, or a major fraud at a Bitcoin ETF — could trigger congressional action that moves faster than any regulatory reform cycle.

Coinbase is the most visible and most regulated US crypto exchange. That's its competitive advantage in the current environment. It's also what makes it the highest-profile target if sentiment turns. The question no current valuation model is explicitly pricing: what happens to COIN's $285 stock price if the political tailwind reverses mid-term? I'd say it's closer to $120 than $200. That asymmetry is the risk the policy trade hasn't priced.

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This content is informational only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Seek professional financial advice before acting on anything you read here.