$15.1 billion. Gone. That is what Gulf producers have haemorrhaged in energy revenues in less than two weeks — bleeding at $1.2 billion every single day the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. For US drivers already paying $6.50 a gallon in California, that figure is not abstract. For UK households bracing for a fresh energy cap review, it is a countdown. The strait is not just a shipping lane. Right now, it is the most expensive 21 miles on Earth.
Trend Breakdown
The clock started on 28 February 2026. Operation Epic Fury — coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran — triggered a chain of events that would bring the world's most critical energy corridor to a virtual standstill within 72 hours.
On the evening of 28 February, outgoing tanker traffic through the Strait was still heavy. By 1 March, it was zero. Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued warnings on the international distress frequency — every ship in the region heard it — and insurance companies did the rest. War-risk premiums, already elevated to between 0.2% and 0.4% of ship value per transit, made the maths impossible. For a very large crude carrier, that is a $250,000 hike in insurance costs for a single passage. Operators simply stopped moving.
Within days the cascade deepened. Qatar halted LNG production at Ras Laffan on 2 March, the world's single largest liquefaction complex, and issued force majeure notices to customers. Kuwait announced production cuts. Iraq slashed output by 1.5 million barrels per day as storage filled up with nowhere to go. By 10 March, the IEA reported Gulf producers had collectively cut at least 10 million barrels per day — roughly 10% of all global oil output vanishing almost overnight.
Brent crude moved from $72.87 before the conflict to $92.69 a barrel by 7 March, a 28% weekly surge — the largest single-week gain since April 2020. WTI posted a 35.63% weekly jump, the biggest in the futures contract's entire history dating to 1983. For a UK household spending £130 a month on energy, Goldman Sachs now forecasts inflation 0.8 percentage points higher for 2026, translating to roughly £100 more drained from that budget by year-end if current trajectories hold.
Comparison Breakdown
The headline $15.1 billion masks very different stories depending on which producer you look at.
Saudi Arabia has lost the most in raw dollar terms — Wood Mackenzie puts the kingdom's deferred revenues at $4.5 billion since the war began. That sounds catastrophic. But Saudi Arabia holds oil in overseas storage facilities, maintains one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, and still has the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, which can theoretically carry up to 7 million barrels per day — though realistic throughput at Yanbu terminals is closer to 3 million. Before the conflict, Aramco was pushing 6 million bpd through Hormuz. The maths does not fully close.
Iraq's position is far more precarious. Ninety percent of the Iraqi government's revenues depend on oil exports. The country has no meaningful sovereign buffer, limited alternative export routes, and has already been forced to cut 1.5 million bpd as onshore storage fills. Every day of closure costs Baghdad money it simply does not have.
Then there is the LNG angle, which the oil headlines are crowding out. Qatar accounts for the majority of the roughly 20% of global LNG that transits the Strait. QatarEnergy alone has lost an estimated $571 million in revenue since halting production on 2 March — and that figure excludes delays to the massive expansion projects Qatar had planned to supply 40% of new global LNG through 2029. LNG is harder to reroute than crude oil. Production is more concentrated. And globally priced gas markets mean a UK household on a variable tariff or an American utility using gas-fired generation feels the squeeze whether the physical molecules reach them or not.
Compare this with the 2020 Soleimani strike — oil spiked and reversed within days. This crisis is structurally different because behaviour, not just expectations, has already changed.
What the Data Reveals
The most important number that most coverage is missing: $10.7 billion. That is Kpler's estimate of the value of crude oil, refined products, and LNG cargoes that are already loaded onto vessels — paid for, crewed up, sitting at anchor — but physically unable to move. The cargo is trapped, not cancelled.
This tells you something crucial about the nature of the shutdown. Iran did not need a naval blockade. It did not need mines or anti-ship missiles, though those are now also allegedly deployed. All it took was a handful of drone strikes near the strait, and within hours insurers cancelled war-risk coverage across the corridor. This was, as one analyst described it, an insurance-driven shutdown.
Alternative routes exist — on paper. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline runs to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The UAE has a pipeline to Fujairah, outside the Gulf. But data from Vortexa and others shows these alternatives can handle only about 17% of normal Hormuz flow volumes. There is no functional substitute for the strait at any meaningful scale.
For US and UK consumers, the transmission mechanism is the global oil benchmark. Americans may import only about 2% of their oil from the Persian Gulf, but Brent is the global price setter. Higher Brent means higher pump prices — the US national average was tracking close to $4.50 a gallon before the conflict; California was already at $6.50 by 12 March. UK forecourt prices, with an approximate two-week lag to benchmark moves, are set to follow the 28% Brent surge into the pump price within days. That is roughly 18–22 pence per litre more at the forecourt, assuming no reversal.
Outliers & Surprises
The counterintuitive winner in this crisis is the US energy sector. American producers do not export through Hormuz. US LNG export capacity is running near maximum — meaning every molecule of global gas supply disruption tightens a market where American exporters benefit directly from higher prices. The US is also the world's largest oil producer. A sustained period of Brent above $90 is a windfall for US shale operators who breakeven in the $40–$60 range.
The most alarming outlier on the loss side is South Korea. The country imports 20% of its gas from the Gulf region and by early March analysts estimated it could exhaust LNG reserves in as few as nine days without resupply. The South Korean government announced a 100 trillion won ($68 billion) stabilisation fund — that is equivalent to roughly £54 billion — to manage soaring energy costs. That scale of emergency response from a single mid-sized economy tells you everything about how quickly this can spiral.
The IEA's decision to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves is the largest coordinated reserve release in the agency's history. Markets noticed — but did not meaningfully calm.
Data-Based Outlook
If current trends hold — $1.2 billion per day in Gulf revenue losses accruing, with no clear path to reopening — the financial arithmetic becomes overwhelming within weeks, not months. JPMorgan estimates production cuts could exceed 4 million barrels per day by the end of next week if the strait remains closed. Goldman Sachs has already raised 2026 US recession odds by 5 percentage points to 25%.
Oxford Economics has modelled a scenario where oil averages $140 a barrel for two months. Their conclusion: the eurozone, the UK, and Japan would contract. The US would face an effective economic standstill. Goldman's own forecasts are less extreme — but they raise 2026 US inflation to 2.9% and trim GDP growth to 2.2% in a moderate scenario. For the average UK household, an Oxford Economics-style outcome would mean hundreds of pounds more on energy bills annually, a weaker pound amplifying import costs, and a Bank of England caught between inflation and recession.
The $15 billion number started the clock. The question is how long it keeps running.
💰 What this means for your money: For the average UK household, this means £18–22 more per tank fill-up within two weeks.
"It took three drone strikes — not a naval blockade — to shut down 20% of the world's oil supply."
The Bottom Line
Fifteen billion dollars in thirteen days — and the meter is still running at $1.2 billion every 24 hours. The real story here is not just the Gulf's revenue haemorrhage; it is that Iran proved a 21-mile waterway can be closed for the cost of a few drones, and that lesson will not be unlearned. There is a version of this story where a ceasefire reopens the strait and prices partially reverse. Based on the structural damage to shipping insurance markets and the precedent now set, that version feels increasingly optimistic.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much oil normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz?
Around 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the strait every day under normal conditions, representing roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Kpler estimates this flow was worth approximately $1.2 billion per day based on 2025 prices and volumes — the figure now being lost every single day the closure continues.
How does the Hormuz closure affect UK and US energy bills?
Oil is globally priced, so even countries not physically importing Gulf crude are exposed. Brent crude has surged 28% in a week, and UK forecourt prices typically follow benchmark moves with a two-week lag — meaning 18–22 pence per litre more at the pump is likely imminent. Goldman Sachs forecasts US inflation 0.8 percentage points higher for 2026 as a result of the disruption, costing the average American household several hundred dollars in additional annual energy and goods costs.
What should I watch to know if this gets worse?
Three triggers to monitor: whether Brent crude breaks sustainably above $100 a barrel (JPMorgan's threshold for accelerating production cuts); whether Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility sustains further Iranian strikes; and whether the IEA's 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release stabilises or fails to calm markets. Any ceasefire or US naval escort programme that successfully reopens the strait would be the single most powerful price-deflationary event in current markets.
