CRITICAL 📉 Bearish

Iran War Shock: UK Mortgage Rates Hit 7-Month High

geopolitics · 12 Mar 2026

What Happened

Average UK mortgage rates breached 5% and 472 deals vanished in 48 hours. The Iran conflict has detonated the biggest mortgage market shock since the 2022 mini-Budget.

Key Takeaways

3 Things to Know

1

472 mortgage deals pulled in 48 hours

2

2-yr SONIA swaps surged to ~4% from 3.43%

3

Diesel up 13p since Feb 28 — a 9% spike

📈 Market Impact

Why It Matters

A short conflict and easing oil prices could see rates fall back within weeks.

Background

The Bigger Picture

Prolonged war and sticky inflation could force the BoE to hike, not cut, in 2026.

Source & Tags

Reported by

Finnotia Research

#UK Mortgages #Iran War #Bank of England #UK Housing Market #Inflation
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